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Index Futures:
Using the SBV Indicator to Trade the Dow Jones
April 26, 2006
In the following example, we applied a simple trading system based on our
SBV indicator:
(A) For entering short positions:
-
Once the
SBV indicator has advanced above plus 66% (the SBV indicator will show
red), wait for it to decline below that level, then enter a short
position;
-
Take
profits once the price / index has declined to your pre-determined
profit target level OR when the SBV indicator drops below minus 66% (the
SBV indicator will show green), whichever occurs first;
-
Take losses
if the price / index rises above your pre-defined stop loss level.
(B) For entering long positions:
-
Once
the SBV indicator has dropped below minus 66% (the SBV indicator
will show green), wait for it to rally above that level, then enter
a long position;
-
Take
profits once the price / index has risen to your pre-determined
profit target level OR when the SBV indicator exceeds plus 66% (the
SBV indicator will show red), whichever occurs first;
-
Take
losses if the price / index declines below your pre-defined stop
loss level.
Chart 1: Using the SBV Indicator to Trade the Dow Jones

|
Date |
Index |
Decision |
date |
Decision |
Index |
|
A:
05/17/06 11:38 |
$11,381 |
Buy |
C:
05/17/06 11:51 |
Sell |
$11,388 |
7 points |
B:
05/17/06
11:51 |
$11,388 |
Sell Short |
C:
05/17/06 15:23 |
Buy to cover |
$11,368 |
22 points |
Important: The 66% level for the SBV
indicator was determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at
the time the examples above were selected. In order to establish the optimal
critical levels for the SBV indicator, a trader should consider the current
market situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges including
their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached). Furthermore, it
is important to look at more than one chart and to use multiple timeframes.
For instance, while a volume surge may look imposing and appear to be
critical on a 2-hour or a 1-day chart, the very same surge may not look
nearly as significant on a 5-day chart. A prominent surge appearing on a
1-day chart could well affect index levels and bring about a one to five
point reversal. In contrast, a prominent volume surge on a 5-day chart may
prompt a reversal of 5 to 10 points.
More Examples:
| Date |
|
Number of Trades |
|
April 23, 2007 |
Russell 2000 |
1 "Short" trade |
|
April 17, 2007 |
S&P 500 |
3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
|
February 17, 2007 |
S&P 500 |
3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
|
February 2, 2007 |
S&P 500 |
4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades |
|
January 23, 2007 |
Russell 2000 |
3 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades |
|
December 19, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
3 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades |
|
December 11, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
2 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades |
|
November 29, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades |
|
August 11, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
2 "Long" and 1 "Short" trades |
| July
19, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades |
| July
18, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
5 "Long" and 6 "Short" trades |
| July
17, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
| July
11, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
5 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
| July
10, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades |
| July
7, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
| June
28, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June
26, 2006 |
NASDAQ 100 |
1 "Short" and 1 "Long" trade |
| June
23, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June
22, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Long" trade |
| June
21, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June
20, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June
19, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Long" trade |
| June
14, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade |
| June
13, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June 9, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
1 "Long" trade |
| June 8, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Long" trade |
| June 7, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June 6, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade |
| June 2, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
2 "Long" trades |
| May 17, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
| May 5, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
2 "Short" trades |
| April 26, 2006 |
Dow |
1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade |
| March 30, 2006 |
NASDAQ 100 |
2 "Long" trades |
|