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E-Mini Index Futures:
SBV Indicator Example for the S&P 500 E-mini.


July 7, 2006

In the following example, we applied a simple four-rule trading system based on our SBV indicator. In our previous examples, we applied a simpler system using only 3 rules. However, the three-rule system is considered more conservative than the four-rule system and generates far fewer trades during a session because:

  • The four-rule system has a lower critical threshold to initiate positions - more trades can thus be generated;

  • The four-rule system uses 2 SBV indicator conditions to open a trade. The three-rule system considers only a single SBV indicator condition. The four-rule system may thus generate additional trades;

  • By using the four-rule system, a trader almost never stays in cash;

  • Since more trades are generated by the four-rule system, more trades resulting in losses may be expected. We therefore lower our stop-loss level to 2 points to minimize losses and keep total session returns positive;

  • Historical tests show that the four-rule system may generate a number of small gains or losses ranging between -0.25 to +0.25 points.

We used the following simple four-rule trading system based on our SBV indicator:

  1. Once the SBV indicator declines below minus 33% (the SBV indicator will now show green), we enter a short position (if we are not already short);
  2. Once the SBV indicator advances above minus 33% (after having been below that level), we will enter a long position (the SBV indicator still shows green);
  3. Once the SBV indicator rallies above plus 33% (the SBV indicator will now show red), we enter a long position (if we are not already long);
  4. Once the SBV indicator declines below plus 33% (after having been above that level), we will enter a short position (the SBV indicator still shows red).

    We have added the following rules to protect profits and cut losses:
  5. Use a six-point gain as the pre-determined, satisfactory profit target;
  6. Set a stop-loss level at 2 points;
  7. Exit positions by the end of the session.

Chart 1: Trading with the SBV indicator using a four-rule system.
S&P 500 E-mini. 1-day view. VMA1 = 15-minutes.

Date Trade
Motivations
Index Decision date Trade Motivations Decision Index Profit
(points)
07/07/06
10:23

Rule #4

1281.25 Sell Short 07/07/06
11:38

Rule #3

Buy to cover 1282.75 -1.50
07/07/06
11:38

Rule #3

1282.75 Buy 07/07/06
11:46

Rule #4

Sell 1282.50 -0.25
07/07/06
11:46
Rule #4 1282.50 Sell Short 07/07/06
13:28
Rule #2 Buy to Cover 1279.25 +3.25
07/07/06
13:28
Rule #2 1279.25 Buy 07/07/06
14:37
Rule #6 Sell 1277.25 -2.00
07/07/06
14:39
Rule #1 1276.50 Sell Short 07/07/06
15:12
Rule #2 Buy to Cover 1271.50 +5.00
07/07/06
15:12
Rule #2 1271.50 Buy 07/07/06
16:14
Rule #7 Sell 1275.00 +3.50

Total:   

+7.25

Important: A 33% trigger level for the SBV indicator, a six-point profit target, and a two-point stop-loss level were determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time the examples above were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, profit targets and stop-loss levels, traders should consider their personal trading style and risk tolerance. They should also review the current market situation and review a chart history of prior volume surges, including their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached).


More Examples:
Date E-mini Number of Trades
April 23, 2007 Russell 2000 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
April 17, 2007 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
February 17, 2007 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
February 2, 2007 S&P 500 E-mini 4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades
January 23, 2007 Russell 2000 E-mini 3 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades
December 19, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades
December 11, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 2 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades
November 29, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades
August 11, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 2 "Long" and 1 "Short" trades
July 19, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades
July 18, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 5 "Long" and 6 "Short" trades
July 17, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
July 11, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 5 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
July 10, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades
July 7, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
June 28, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 26, 2006 NASDAQ 100 E-mini 1 "Short" and 1 "Long" trade
June 23, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 22, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 21, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 20, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 19, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 14, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade
June 13, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 9, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 8, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 7, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 6, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade
June 2, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 2 "Long" trades
May 17, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
May 5, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 2 "Short" trades
April 26, 2006 Dow E-mini 1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade
March 30, 2006 NASDAQ 100 E-mini 2 "Long" trades

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