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E-Mini Index Futures:
SBV Indicator Example for the Russell 2000 E-mini.


November 29, 2006

We used the following simple four-rule trading system based on our SBV indicator:

  1. Once the SBV indicator has advanced above plus 33% (the SBV indicator will show red), wait for it to decline below that level, then enter a short position;
  2. Once the SBV indicator has dropped below minus 33% (the SBV indicator will now show green), wait for it to rally above that level, then enter a long position;

    It is very important to use a stop-loss strategy – particularly for intraday trades. In our system, we applied the following rules to recognize when a false signal occurred (and thus to cut our losses short):
     

  3. If we are presently in a long position and prices start to decline, we will take a loss once the SBV indicator has dropped below minus 33%. This rule may also be used to open initiate a new short position;
     
  4. If we are currently in a short position and prices start to advance, we will take a loss once the SBV indicator has advanced above plus 33%. This rule may also be used to initiate a new long position.

    We have added the following rules to protect profits and cut losses:
  5. Use a eight-point gain as the pre-determined, satisfactory profit target;
  6. Exit positions by the end of the session;

    Additional rule we use for the first trade in session:
  7. Since the price trend could be under the influence of the night futures trading after the market opens, we do not open a first trade for the session by #3 and #4 rules;

    Additional recommended rule for the last trade in session:
  8. We refrain from opening a trade if less than an hour remains until market close.

A number of additional rules could be added to the system depending on personal trading style and risk tolerance, and we strongly believe that any system should be adjusted to a trader's personal trading needs.

For instance: Setting a stop loss level at 1 point would reduce loses from -5.70 points to -3.10 points and would increase the total gain from +1.60 to +4.60 points by the end of the session in the example below

Chart 1: Trading the SBV indicator by using 4-rule system.
Russell 2000 E-mini. 1-day view. VMA1 = 30-min

Time Trade
Motivations
Index Decision Time Trade Motivations Decision Index Profit
(points)
09:53 Rule #1 782.20 Sell Short 10:11 Rule #4 Buy to Cover 785.20 -3.0
10:11 Rule #4 785.20 Buy 10:14 Rule #1 Sell 785.20 0
10:14 Rule #1 785.20 Sell Short 11:07 Rule #4 Buy to Cover 786.20 -1.0
11:07 Rule #4 786.20 Buy 11:18 Rule #1 Sell 786.10 -0.10
11:18 Rule #1 786.10 Sell Short 13:58 Rule #2 Buy to Cover 780.80 +5.30
13:58 Rule #2 780.80 Buy 14:15 Rule #1 Sell 781.50 +0.70
14:15 Rule #1 781.50 Sell Short 14:51 Rule #4 Buy to Cover 783.20 -1.70
14:51 Rule #4 783.20 Buy 15:23 Rule #1 Sell 784.60 +1.40

Total:   

+1.6

Important: The 33% trigger level for the SBV indicator, 6 points a satisfactory profit target and 2 points the stop-loss level were determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at the time the examples above were selected. In order to establish the optimal critical levels for the SBV indicator, profit target and stop-loss level a trader should consider his/her personal trading style and risk tolerance as well as review the current market situation and scroll a chart history of prior volume surges including their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached).


More Examples:
Date E-mini Number of Trades
April 23, 2007 Russell 2000 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
April 17, 2007 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
February 17, 2007 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
February 2, 2007 S&P 500 E-mini 4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades
January 23, 2007 Russell 2000 E-mini 3 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades
December 19, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades
December 11, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 2 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades
November 29, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades
August 11, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 2 "Long" and 1 "Short" trades
July 19, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades
July 18, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 5 "Long" and 6 "Short" trades
July 17, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
July 11, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 5 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
July 10, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades
July 7, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
June 28, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 26, 2006 NASDAQ 100 E-mini 1 "Short" and 1 "Long" trade
June 23, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 22, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 21, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 20, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 19, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 14, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade
June 13, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 9, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 8, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" trade
June 7, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Short" trade
June 6, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade
June 2, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 2 "Long" trades
May 17, 2006 Russell 2000 E-mini 2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades
May 5, 2006 S&P 500 E-mini 2 "Short" trades
April 26, 2006 Dow E-mini 1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade
March 30, 2006 NASDAQ 100 E-mini 2 "Long" trades

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