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Index Futures:
SBV Indicator Example for the Russell 2000.
November 29, 2006We used the
following simple four-rule trading system based on our SBV indicator:
- Once
the SBV indicator has advanced above plus 33% (the SBV indicator will
show red), wait for it to decline below that level, then enter a short
position;
- Once the SBV indicator has dropped below minus 33% (the SBV
indicator will now show green), wait for it to rally above that level,
then enter a long position;
It is very important to use a stop-loss strategy – particularly for
intraday trades. In our system, we applied the following rules to
recognize when a false signal occurred (and thus to cut our losses
short):
- If we are presently in a long position and prices start to decline,
we will take a loss once the SBV indicator has dropped below minus 33%.
This rule may also be used to open initiate a new short position;
- If we are currently in a short position and prices start to advance,
we will take a loss once the SBV indicator has advanced above plus 33%.
This rule may also be used to initiate a new long position.
We have added the following rules to protect profits and
cut losses:
- Use a
eight-point gain as the pre-determined, satisfactory profit target;
- Exit
positions by the end of the session;
Additional rule we use for the first trade in session:
- Since
the price trend could be under the influence of the night futures
trading after the market opens, we do not open a first trade for the
session by #3 and #4 rules;
Additional recommended rule for the last trade in session:
- We
refrain from opening a trade if less than an hour remains until market
close.
A number of additional rules could be added to the
system depending on personal trading style and risk tolerance, and we
strongly believe that any system should be adjusted to a trader's personal
trading needs.
For instance: Setting a stop loss level at 1 point
would reduce loses from -5.70 points to -3.10 points and would increase the
total gain from +1.60 to +4.60 points by the end of the session in the
example below
Chart 1: Trading the SBV indicator
by using 4-rule system.
Russell 2000. 1-day view. VMA1 = 30-min

|
Time |
Trade
Motivations |
Index |
Decision |
Time |
Trade Motivations |
Decision |
Index |
Profit
(points) |
|
09:53 |
Rule #1 |
782.20 |
Sell Short |
10:11 |
Rule #4 |
Buy to Cover |
785.20 |
-3.0 |
|
10:11 |
Rule #4 |
785.20 |
Buy |
10:14 |
Rule #1 |
Sell |
785.20 |
0 |
|
10:14 |
Rule #1 |
785.20 |
Sell Short |
11:07 |
Rule #4 |
Buy to Cover |
786.20 |
-1.0 |
|
11:07 |
Rule #4 |
786.20 |
Buy |
11:18 |
Rule #1 |
Sell |
786.10 |
-0.10 |
|
11:18 |
Rule #1 |
786.10 |
Sell Short |
13:58 |
Rule #2 |
Buy to Cover |
780.80 |
+5.30 |
|
13:58 |
Rule #2 |
780.80 |
Buy |
14:15 |
Rule #1 |
Sell |
781.50 |
+0.70 |
|
14:15 |
Rule #1 |
781.50 |
Sell Short |
14:51 |
Rule #4 |
Buy to Cover |
783.20 |
-1.70 |
|
14:51 |
Rule #4 |
783.20 |
Buy |
15:23 |
Rule #1 |
Sell |
784.60 |
+1.40 |
|
Total:
|
+1.6 |
Important: The 33% trigger level for the SBV
indicator,
6 points a satisfactory profit target and 2 points the stop-loss level
were determined in relation to the prevailing market conditions at
the time the examples above were selected. In order to establish the optimal
critical levels for the SBV indicator, profit target and stop-loss level a trader should consider
his/her personal trading style and risk tolerance as well as review the current
market situation and scroll a chart history of prior volume surges including
their magnitude (i.e., the level the SBV indicator reached).
More Examples:
| Date |
|
Number of Trades |
|
April 23, 2007 |
Russell 2000 |
1 "Short" trade |
|
April 17, 2007 |
S&P 500 |
3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
|
February 17, 2007 |
S&P 500 |
3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
|
February 2, 2007 |
S&P 500 |
4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades |
|
January 23, 2007 |
Russell 2000 |
3 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades |
|
December 19, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
3 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades |
|
December 11, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
2 "Long" and 2 "Short" trades |
|
November 29, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
4 "Long" and 4 "Short" trades |
|
August 11, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
2 "Long" and 1 "Short" trades |
| July
19, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades |
| July
18, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
5 "Long" and 6 "Short" trades |
| July
17, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
| July
11, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
5 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
| July
10, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
4 "Long" and 5 "Short" trades |
| July
7, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
3 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
| June
28, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June
26, 2006 |
NASDAQ 100 |
1 "Short" and 1 "Long" trade |
| June
23, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June
22, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Long" trade |
| June
21, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June
20, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June
19, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Long" trade |
| June
14, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade |
| June
13, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June 9, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
1 "Long" trade |
| June 8, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Long" trade |
| June 7, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Short" trade |
| June 6, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade |
| June 2, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
2 "Long" trades |
| May 17, 2006 |
Russell 2000 |
2 "Long" and 3 "Short" trades |
| May 5, 2006 |
S&P 500 |
2 "Short" trades |
| April 26, 2006 |
Dow |
1 "Long" and 1 "Short" trade |
| March 30, 2006 |
NASDAQ 100 |
2 "Long" trades |
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